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Аналітичне листування між агентами розвідувально-аналітичної компанії «Stratfor» про роль В.Путіна та Д.Медведєва в арешті Ю.Тимошенко й плани Росії щодо В.Януковича (Лист старшого аналітика з питань Євразії Лорен Гудріч до директора з аналізу «Stratfor» Реви Балла)
September 14, 2011 – Analytical correspondence between agents of intelligence and analysis company «Stratfor» about Putin and Medvedev role in the arrest of Tymoshenko and Russians plans for Yanukovych (Letter senior analyst for Eurasia Lauren Goodrich to the director from the analysis of «Stratfor» Reva Balla)

(14 вересня 2011 р.)


Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

Email-ID 4035023
Date 2011-09-14 20:55:23
From bhalla@stratfor.com
To alpha@stratfor.com
List-Name alpha@stratfor.com

this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much influence over the situation? this is something we need to address in Ukraine reassessment


From: "Marc Lanthemann"
To: "Alpha List"
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

SOURCE DESCRIPTION: A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev

Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch. But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to begin with.

You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got her in trouble and arrested.

But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU, military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension it had been pushing for.

So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009, the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.


Lauren Goodrich
Senior Eurasia Analyst
T: 512.744.4311
F: 512.744.4334


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