Ukraine at a crossroads: a mafia-type state — a sentence or a challenge?

By Chilli.Pepper

The mafia is not a cinematic horror, but an everyday policy that today defines the rules of the game for the entire country. How has the long-standing fusion of power and shadow business become the greatest threat to the future of Ukraine? Do we really live in a mafia state and is there a way out of this trap?

Published: Chilli.Pepper. Ukraine at a crossroads: a mafia-type state — a sentence or a challenge? // Newssky.com.ua. – 2025. – July 29. https://newssky.com.ua/en/ukrayina-na-rozdorizhzhi-mafioznyj-typ-derzhavy-vyrok-chy-vyklyk/

Mafia-type state: the Ukrainian context through the prism of a scientist

Ukraine is rapidly and confidently moving along a path that historian Pavlo Gai-Nyzhnyk defines as nothing other than the transformation of the state into a mafia-type. In a recent interview for leading publications, he describes without illusions how the unwritten law of the strong operates behind the scenes of official democracy, when the main criterion for appointment to positions is loyalty to the clan and connections with influential business groups[1]. Such realities lead not to unification for the common good, but to the self-preservation of interest groups that form the "mafia backbone" of statehood.

According to Gai-Nyzhnyk, the mafia-type state is not only a Ukrainian specificity. It is a global disease of the post-Soviet space and many new democracies. However, in Ukraine this model has clearly expressed features - the dominance of oligarchic-clan and financial-political groups that control key resources and even political competition itself, determine the list of political figures capable of entering parliament, and therefore the future of the country.

The fusion of power and crime: when the state becomes a clan

Analysis of recent decades confirms that no country in the world is immune from the mafia state scenario. Such a system is formed where corruption becomes the norm, and society tolerates it as an integral part of political culture. The mafia type of state is not limited to theft or bribery - it is a purposeful process of capturing state institutions by a shadow elite, which forms the economic foundation for impunity and the constant expansion of influence[6].

The consequences of such a symbiosis are visible everywhere: control of strategic resources, influence on personnel policy, a system of "watchers" over key sectors - from energy to the judiciary. The executive, legislative and judicial branches of power lose their autonomy, become instruments for serving the interests of closed groups, and voters become hostages of the situation.

"Mafia International": from Latin America to Eastern Europe

Focusing on a global perspective, we see how the phenomenon of the mafia state is gaining momentum around the world, from the Russian Federation and Belarus to Bulgaria, Venezuela, Burma, and even some EU countries.[8][13][15] The point is the same: instead of being enemies, the government and organized crime are starting to cooperate. The civil service is turning into a tool to protect the interests of mafia business, and politics is turning into an expansion of the resource base for selected clans.[13]

Famous examples demonstrate how authoritarian leaders — from Putin to Lukashenko and Yanukovych — built ruling circles like a mafia "family," where loyalty is more important than competence, and justice is synonymous with telephone law and a "nobody's" court system.

Mechanisms of the mafia state: how modern corruption works

The mafia type does not emerge suddenly. Balint Magyar, a Hungarian sociologist, distinguishes three stages of degradation: from everyday corruption to the capture of entire sectors and the final phase - the complete identification of criminal and state interests.[6][8] At this level, elections, laws and public institutions become decorative, and real decisions are made outside of public procedures.

In Ukraine and other post-Soviet states, key industries—energy, resource extraction, media—are controlled by groups connected to power through mechanisms of formal and informal control, from the selection of judges and prosecutors to the determination of government policy.

Comparative anatomy of a mafia state: Russia, Ukraine, Europe

It is important to note the difference: if in Russia the mafia type of power is built as a vertical of one clan with a clear dictatorship, then in Ukraine this “state mafia” is formed as a confusion of clans that balance interests, overcoming competition through situational alliances.[15] Hungary, according to Magyar, is an example of a post-communist mafia state in the EU, where the clan organization is integrated with external democratic formalities.[8][16]

In other countries, the mafia type manifests itself through political control of organized crime in the judicial and law enforcement systems, where bribery and political influence become a means of avoiding punishment and maintaining the integrity of business[10].

Clan, oligarchy or mafia regime? Expert discussion

Leading political scientists and sociologists debate whether the current system in Ukraine is more of a kleptocracy (rule by a corrupt elite for enrichment) or a mafia state (where a criminal organization is institutionalized in power). The difference is not only in scale, but also in the openness of control mechanisms: in a mafia state, even visible competitors are part of a large game, the rules of which are set by the leaders of a limited circle.[15][8]

The objective reality of our country is a mixture of both forms. Clan-mafia rule is not only possible in the future, but has been the norm since the collapse of the USSR, where it was the criminal elements and the party nomenclature that formed the first institutions of modern oligarchy[6][8].

Social, economic and security risks of mafia statehood

A mafia clan can cause the entire state to gradually turn into an instrument for enriching a narrow group, plunging into chronic corruption, opaque courts, and political irresponsibility. The main tragedy is the slowdown in the development of national capital, technical backwardness, stagnation of education and science, and the loss of international authority and trust of donor institutions.[6][8][13]

The Ukrainian historian warns that the acuteness of the current moment lies in the fact that the country is struggling not only with military aggression from outside, but also with the internal degradation of institutions due to a mafia-like type of statehood. The insane level of political corruption is a chance not for reforms, but for a new wave of criminal influence on all branches of government.

Hybrid war and the mafia factor: the Russian trail

Russia has now used the mafia-type state in its own hybrid wars and foreign policy. Criminalized elites act as hidden residents in other countries through influence over politicians, smuggling, and investing in shadowy schemes. The mafia has become a lever of state policy, where the instrument of force becomes not an individual but a national resource.[7][19]

In this context, the mafia-type state becomes a tool for external expansion — recreating puppet regimes, undermining the stability of neighboring countries, and destroying regional order not only through force, but also through control over corruption and manipulation.

Ways out: what can break the mafia trap?

Experts in law, sociology, and security agree that confronting mafia statehood is possible only under two conditions. First, by forming a cult of personal responsibility for each citizen, and not just the rhetoric of change from television or social media. Second, through a total overhaul of the judicial system, the deployment of anti-corruption institutions, and a reduction in the role of large media corporations that “mold” the political class to suit the needs of the right players.[6][8]

The strategic exit plan envisages a gradual change in political culture, moving away from the “strong patron” model to the role of an active community. This will also require the practices of other countries, such as EU member states, which, through the gradual decriminalization of public service, law enforcement reform, and increased transparency, have been able to minimize the risks of mafia degradation to the greatest extent possible.

Conclusion: The Reality of a Mafia State Is Not Without a Solution

Today, Ukraine is at the threshold where the choice between a mafia state and a democracy based on the rule of law determines not only the prospects for reforms, but also security, economic survival, and, ultimately, the national future. It is possible to escape the mafia loop — but for this, everyone will have to take some of the responsibility on themselves, and not wait for another “descendant of Gai-Nyzhnyk” with recipes for salvation.